On Saturday, September 17 we will see Gennady “GGG” Golovkin (42-1-1, 37KO’s) and Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (57-2-2, 39KO’s) clash for the third, and likely final time. The first two fights provided 24 competitive rounds, one razor thin and one controversial decision.  

Since their last bout almost 4 years ago, a lot has changed. Canelo became the biggest draw in the sport. He moved up to the super-middleweight division where he became the first undisputed champion of the four-belt era. He also made a move to the Light-Heavyweight division and won the WBO title from Sergey Kovalev. He was riding high, until this past May when he was soundly defeated by Dmitry Bivol.

GGG continued his winning ways winning four straight fights coming into this rematch. Most recently he picked up the WBA Middleweight title in April 2022. While GGG has been winning, he no longer looks like the monster that reigned over the middleweight division for nearly a decade. This fight will also be GGG’s first in the super middleweight division.

For me, this fight comes down to what GGG has left. He was fought 4 times in the past 4 years, while this will be Canelo’s fifth fight in the past year and a half.  Canelo has also been campaigning at super middleweight for the past four years and has been dominant. He is 5-0 with 4 stoppages of the other champions. GGG has always fought Canelo tough as evidenced by the fact that in the 24 rounds they have fought Canelo has only out landed him in 4 of the rounds. GGG will need to use his best tool his jab to control the fight. Canelo will probably look to go to the body early to slow down the 40-year-old Golovkin.

Since they have lost fought, Canelo has grown exponentially becoming a supremely complete fighter. As some boxing old heads say “he can give it to you any way you want it”.  GGG has largely remained the same which is not a bad thing. That’s probably good enough to beat most, but to the person, I still see as the best fighter on the planet? I doubt it. Canelo is younger, faster, stronger, and more active, which is why he’s my pick to win.

My Prediction: Canelo TKO 10

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